Bangladesh
Socioeconomic indicators
Demography
• - Total population (millions), 2004: 153 (i)
• - Annual population growth rate(%), 2005 - 15:1.6 (i)
• - Population under age 15 (% of total), 2005:35.2 (i)
• - Urban population (% of total), 2005:25.1 (i)
• - Infant mortality rate(per 1,000 live births), 2005:73 (i)
• -% of children aged 5 - 14 thatare working : 13.4% (iii)
Education
• - Youth literacy rate (%, age 15-24), 2005: 63.6 (i)
• - Female youth literacy rate (%, age 15-24), 2005: 60.3 (i)
• - Primary school enrolment ratio (gross), 2000 - 07: Male 87/Female 91 (ii)
• - Secondary school enrolment ration (gross), 2000 - 07: Male 43/Female 45 (ii)
• - Net primary school attendance, 2000 - 07 (%): Male 79/Female 84 (ii)
Economy
• - GDP/capita (PPP US$), 2005:2,053 (i)
• - Unemployment rate (% of labour force), 1996-2005: 4.3 (i)
• - Population living below $2 a day (%), 2005:84.0 (ii)
Source:
(i) Human Development Report 2007-08
(ii) UNICEF: The State of the World’s Children 2009
(iii) ILO:SIMPOC: Bangladesh Child Labour Country Brief
Child labour situation
In 2002 - 03, the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) conducted the second National Child Labour Survey (NCLS) ( 1 ). This survey has been designed and conducted in the context of the commitments made by the Government of Bangladesh, following the ratification of the International Labour Organization (ILO) Worst Forms of Child Labour Convention (No. 182) 1999. According to the survey, there are 4.9 million working children ( 2 ) — 14.2 per cent of the total 35.06 million children in the age group of 5-14 years. The total working child population between 5 and 17 years old is estimated at 7.9 million.
• The proportion of boy and girl child workers, in the age group of 5-17 years, is 73.5 per cent and 26.5 per cent, respectively;
• The total number of working children aged 5-17 years in rural areas is estimated at 6.4 million as against 1.5 million in urban areas;
• As many as 93.3 per cent of all working children in the age group of 5-17 years operate in the informal sector. Agriculture engages 4.5 million (56.4 per cent children), while the services sector engages 2 million (25.9 per cent), and industry, 1.4 million (17.7 per cent);
• A total of 1.3 million children are estimated to be working 43 hours or more per week. More boys than girls are engaged in this form of child labour across all age groups.
Parallel to the National Child Labour Survey, an establishment survey and five baseline surveys on the worst forms of child labour in five segments (welding, automobiles, street children, battery re-charging, and transport) have also been conducted under the supervision of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics with technical and financial support from the ILO. The final reports of the establishment survey and the baseline surveys are now available. The factors that generate child labour in Bangladesh can be summarized as follows:
• Extreme forms of poverty play a crucial role. Child labour is part of a vicious cycle, with poverty as a main cause as well as a main consequence. This implies that child labour cannot be addressed in isolation. Among factors contributing to child labour are rapid population growth, adult unemployment, bad working conditions, lack of minimum wages, exploitation of workers, low standard of living, low quality of education, lack of legal provisions and enforcement, low capacity of institutions, gender discrimination and traditional arguments in favour of child labour. One or more of the above contribute to the large numbers of children working under exploitative or hazardous conditions.
• There is a direct link between child labour and education. Nearly 50 per cent of primary school students drop out before they complete grade 5, and then gravitate towards work, adding to the number of child labourers. The high drop-out rates are correlated with the low quality of public primary education, low adult literacy, low awareness of the importance of education, teacher-student ratio (sometimes this goes up to 1 per 100), non-availability of didactic and learning materials, and the cost of education. Basic primary education is free as far as direct costs and school books are concerned. But many indirect costs are involved as well, such as transport, uniforms, pens, pencils, and notebooks.
• Bangladesh has only limited provision for pre-vocational/vocational skills training and there are related constraints such as the quality of the skills training, market and employment linkages and certification. While this could be an attractive option to working/disadvantaged children and their families, neither the Government of Bangladesh nor many of the non-governmental organizations have the institutional capacity and technical expertise required to deliver skills training facilities effectively;
• Finally, the level of awareness on the issue of child labour and laws prohibiting it is still low. Society in general has a rather indifferent attitude towards the problem. In many cases, it is not realised that the children who are employed in, for example, domestic service, often have no access to education or medical care.
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Energy Situation in Bangladesh
The energy situation in Bangladesh continues to deteriorate. Government has acted recently to improve the availability of gas which should improve conditions. This is the third in a series of four articles that reviews briefly the issues and possibilities. In the first of this series the availability and prospects for natural gas were discussed with the conclusion that there were prospects for some increases, but significant increases were far in the future. The second article covered the challenge of increasing the generating capacity of the power sector. The conclusion was that so long as the Government relied on the state enterprises to generate the electricity there would be perpetual shortages; the success of the Awami League in their first government was based on the introduction of the IPPs. Government owned plants are inefficient, poorly operated, and difficult to finance and construct. In this article the alternative fuels besides natural gas are reviewed. There are six possibilities: Hydroelectricity, heavy fuel oil, coal, nuclear, accessing neighbours surpluses and renewable methods such as wind and solar. We review briefly the advantages and problems of each. In the short run there is little that can be done. The only fuel that can be delivered immediately is heavy fuel oil in amounts needed to provide a significant increase of power. So we are talking about the long run here, after 3-4 years.
Hydro electricity: In Bangladesh the very flat landscape means that there are few sites suitable for dams to generate hydroelectricity. Good hydro power plants require both a large flow of water and a large drop of the water over a short distance. While there are rivers with large water flows there is little fall in the level of the river, and no really good dam sites. Major hydro sites are found outside Bangladesh in the foothills of the Himalayas; but development of such sites to benefit Bangladesh requires the agreement of the Indian, Nepalese and Bhutan Governments. So far it has proved impossible to utilise power from such sites. In the very long run one might expect the emergence of a regional management of the hydroelectric energy but we are very very
far from achieving such an outcome.
But there are other problems: there is widespread opposition to hydroelectric project from the environmental movements in the world. This anti large dam movement is very strong in India and Nepal and is certainly alive and well in Bangladesh. Any serious attempts to develop major projects would immediately bring strong protests from such people. Realistically there is no possibility of significant hydroelectric energy over the next 15 years other than the possibility of imports from India but these will be limited as India's hydropower development is limited in the east.
Heavy fuel oil and diesel: This is being proposed and planned for use in Bangladesh as alternatives to natural gas. PDB has not indicated that they have done careful homework on the cost implications of such an approach. There are tenders out for the dual fuel plants; until these are available the cost implications of use of this fuel are uncertain. The cost increases arise from the use of heavy fuel oil or diesel as the fuel and the increased cost of equipment in order to provide for the ability to use both fuels. In addition storage facilities are needed for the heavy fuel oil or diesel. Finally, unlike the gas fired plants which are run off natural gas with a price controlled by the Government, using heavy fuel oil exposes the operator to changes in the market price. The use of heavy fuel oil or diesel in dual purpose facilities may be a sound approach for small facilities that can be completed in the near future, but large projects cannot be operated this way when there is much cheaper coal and natural gas available. One should only commission large gas fired plants when there is sufficient gas available for the lifetime of the plant. Large dual fuel plants present tricky operational problems.
Coal: Three approaches to using coal for power plants have been discussed: Import coal, mine coal using underground methods, mine coal using open pit methods. There are a few comments that have to be made: (1) Coal causes pollution from green house gas emissions; but Bangladesh should not be asked to increase its cost of electricity by not using coal when it is now one of the nations with the least pollution of the atmosphere. (2) Coal does not provide a short term solution; it will take 4-5 years to have plants running and either mines in operation or facilities for handling coal imports constructed and operating. (3) Domestic coal production from open pit mines requires very careful treatment of the resettlement problem and very careful treatment of the ground water management.
a. Import coal: Expensive; requires considerable handling facilities and constant dredging. Cost varies with the international market. I estimate that the fob price will be $70/mt during the next few years and the transport cost to deliver to a power station in Bangladesh will add another $10/mt. Hence I think imported coal will average something of the order of $80/mt over the next five years. Indian coal is imported by truck and costs about $70/mt at the border. [Official invoice value is $40-45/mt; rest is paid through hundi system] Storage and transport by road will be expensive and unless there is strict regulation, tear up the roads. Finally Indian coal does not meet Bangladeshi's environmental standards.
b. Domestic production through underground mining: Expensive; amount that can be extracted from the ore body is only one fifth what can be taken using open pit mining [given the geology of northwest Bangladesh]. Less disturbance of population compared to open pit mines. However, based on the existing mine at Barapukuria the cost is above $100/mt. [Some costs are hidden.] Within in limits one can make a fixed price, long term contract for domestic coal.
c. Domestic production through open pit mining: Lots of coal and relatively cheap. With existing royalties the cost is about $50-55 per mt; another dollar is needed to move the coal to the power plant assuming that the plant is near the mine. The open pit method in the one case that is carefully studied displaces about 8,000 households; the total cost of resettlement, rehabilitation, repair of damage to infrastructure, etc. is included in the cost of the project. Of the three ways to use coal for power, large open pit mines are the most efficient and provide the lowest cost fuel for the power system.
Nuclear: Nuclear plants for generating electricity are a tricky option for Bangladesh, given the high population density and the elaborate safety concerns that go with. Nuclear power electricity is rather expensive as the process of approvals and clearances is so slow that money is tied up in structures and fuel agreements for a long time. Electricity from a nuclear plant is not particularly cheap. While the fuel is cheap, the cost of the plant and all of the associated safety aspects lead to nuclear plants being perhaps twice the cost of a gas or coal plant per unit of capacity. Nuclear plants are probably needed in Bangladesh, starting in fifteen years with a build up in their number during years 25-50. After 30 years the coal will be largely used or committed to existing coal fired plants. The natural gas supply will be uncertain and it will be necessary to use nuclear as the base load unless the hydro can be developed. Bangladesh cannot take the chance on the hydro developments actually going forward. Starting to develop nuclear plants, learning the engineering and management skills that go with that, and developing the safety related skills is an important step forward. But the use of nuclear energy will not solve the problems of providing power over the next ten years.
Regional energy sharing: Small steps have been taken to obtain electricity from India. This is a good idea but one would like to know the price before building transmission lines! In any event South Asia is a power deficit area. It will take time to build up the generating capacity for a regional grid and long negotiation over prices. Significant supply from a regional grid is far away. While there is progress now, Governments come and go. Over the past six decades no significant cooperation has been achieved until the last few months. It is too early to conclude how this will work out.
Renewable energies: Solar driven electrical energy is certainly the rage. There is no doubt greater use of solar energy is an important step forward. However, the full costs are yet to be known. For example battery lifetime in Bangladesh climatic condition is not fully documented. Losses from hailstorms and other violent storms unknown. Of course the basic investment is still rather high for the amount of energy that is produced. The large amounts of electricity needed in Bangladesh cannot come from renewable sources. In my calculations energy requirements call for adding [including replacement] 11-12,000 MWs of capacity over the next decade. We cannot count on renewable sources for more than 1,000 MWs. Costs for renewable will remain high unless battery costs can be reduced.
How might 14,000 MWs be fueled? Here are my rough estimates:
1. Natural gas—5-6,000 MWs; 2. Coal—6-7,000 MWs; 3. Regional—.5-1,000 MWs; 4. Renewable, hydro—.5-1,000 MWs
During the next four years the only available fuels are gas, diesel, and heavy fuel oil. The country is stuck. Starting in the 4th year coal can be available in sufficient volume to provide a secure baseline electricity supply with gas used partly for base load and partly for peaking. Coal is probably cheaper than gas even after allowing for the environmental costs. After ten years new sources - nuclear, hydro, and renewable will be needed in large amounts.
Hydro electricity: In Bangladesh the very flat landscape means that there are few sites suitable for dams to generate hydroelectricity. Good hydro power plants require both a large flow of water and a large drop of the water over a short distance. While there are rivers with large water flows there is little fall in the level of the river, and no really good dam sites. Major hydro sites are found outside Bangladesh in the foothills of the Himalayas; but development of such sites to benefit Bangladesh requires the agreement of the Indian, Nepalese and Bhutan Governments. So far it has proved impossible to utilise power from such sites. In the very long run one might expect the emergence of a regional management of the hydroelectric energy but we are very very
far from achieving such an outcome.
But there are other problems: there is widespread opposition to hydroelectric project from the environmental movements in the world. This anti large dam movement is very strong in India and Nepal and is certainly alive and well in Bangladesh. Any serious attempts to develop major projects would immediately bring strong protests from such people. Realistically there is no possibility of significant hydroelectric energy over the next 15 years other than the possibility of imports from India but these will be limited as India's hydropower development is limited in the east.
Heavy fuel oil and diesel: This is being proposed and planned for use in Bangladesh as alternatives to natural gas. PDB has not indicated that they have done careful homework on the cost implications of such an approach. There are tenders out for the dual fuel plants; until these are available the cost implications of use of this fuel are uncertain. The cost increases arise from the use of heavy fuel oil or diesel as the fuel and the increased cost of equipment in order to provide for the ability to use both fuels. In addition storage facilities are needed for the heavy fuel oil or diesel. Finally, unlike the gas fired plants which are run off natural gas with a price controlled by the Government, using heavy fuel oil exposes the operator to changes in the market price. The use of heavy fuel oil or diesel in dual purpose facilities may be a sound approach for small facilities that can be completed in the near future, but large projects cannot be operated this way when there is much cheaper coal and natural gas available. One should only commission large gas fired plants when there is sufficient gas available for the lifetime of the plant. Large dual fuel plants present tricky operational problems.
Coal: Three approaches to using coal for power plants have been discussed: Import coal, mine coal using underground methods, mine coal using open pit methods. There are a few comments that have to be made: (1) Coal causes pollution from green house gas emissions; but Bangladesh should not be asked to increase its cost of electricity by not using coal when it is now one of the nations with the least pollution of the atmosphere. (2) Coal does not provide a short term solution; it will take 4-5 years to have plants running and either mines in operation or facilities for handling coal imports constructed and operating. (3) Domestic coal production from open pit mines requires very careful treatment of the resettlement problem and very careful treatment of the ground water management.
a. Import coal: Expensive; requires considerable handling facilities and constant dredging. Cost varies with the international market. I estimate that the fob price will be $70/mt during the next few years and the transport cost to deliver to a power station in Bangladesh will add another $10/mt. Hence I think imported coal will average something of the order of $80/mt over the next five years. Indian coal is imported by truck and costs about $70/mt at the border. [Official invoice value is $40-45/mt; rest is paid through hundi system] Storage and transport by road will be expensive and unless there is strict regulation, tear up the roads. Finally Indian coal does not meet Bangladeshi's environmental standards.
b. Domestic production through underground mining: Expensive; amount that can be extracted from the ore body is only one fifth what can be taken using open pit mining [given the geology of northwest Bangladesh]. Less disturbance of population compared to open pit mines. However, based on the existing mine at Barapukuria the cost is above $100/mt. [Some costs are hidden.] Within in limits one can make a fixed price, long term contract for domestic coal.
c. Domestic production through open pit mining: Lots of coal and relatively cheap. With existing royalties the cost is about $50-55 per mt; another dollar is needed to move the coal to the power plant assuming that the plant is near the mine. The open pit method in the one case that is carefully studied displaces about 8,000 households; the total cost of resettlement, rehabilitation, repair of damage to infrastructure, etc. is included in the cost of the project. Of the three ways to use coal for power, large open pit mines are the most efficient and provide the lowest cost fuel for the power system.
Nuclear: Nuclear plants for generating electricity are a tricky option for Bangladesh, given the high population density and the elaborate safety concerns that go with. Nuclear power electricity is rather expensive as the process of approvals and clearances is so slow that money is tied up in structures and fuel agreements for a long time. Electricity from a nuclear plant is not particularly cheap. While the fuel is cheap, the cost of the plant and all of the associated safety aspects lead to nuclear plants being perhaps twice the cost of a gas or coal plant per unit of capacity. Nuclear plants are probably needed in Bangladesh, starting in fifteen years with a build up in their number during years 25-50. After 30 years the coal will be largely used or committed to existing coal fired plants. The natural gas supply will be uncertain and it will be necessary to use nuclear as the base load unless the hydro can be developed. Bangladesh cannot take the chance on the hydro developments actually going forward. Starting to develop nuclear plants, learning the engineering and management skills that go with that, and developing the safety related skills is an important step forward. But the use of nuclear energy will not solve the problems of providing power over the next ten years.
Regional energy sharing: Small steps have been taken to obtain electricity from India. This is a good idea but one would like to know the price before building transmission lines! In any event South Asia is a power deficit area. It will take time to build up the generating capacity for a regional grid and long negotiation over prices. Significant supply from a regional grid is far away. While there is progress now, Governments come and go. Over the past six decades no significant cooperation has been achieved until the last few months. It is too early to conclude how this will work out.
Renewable energies: Solar driven electrical energy is certainly the rage. There is no doubt greater use of solar energy is an important step forward. However, the full costs are yet to be known. For example battery lifetime in Bangladesh climatic condition is not fully documented. Losses from hailstorms and other violent storms unknown. Of course the basic investment is still rather high for the amount of energy that is produced. The large amounts of electricity needed in Bangladesh cannot come from renewable sources. In my calculations energy requirements call for adding [including replacement] 11-12,000 MWs of capacity over the next decade. We cannot count on renewable sources for more than 1,000 MWs. Costs for renewable will remain high unless battery costs can be reduced.
How might 14,000 MWs be fueled? Here are my rough estimates:
1. Natural gas—5-6,000 MWs; 2. Coal—6-7,000 MWs; 3. Regional—.5-1,000 MWs; 4. Renewable, hydro—.5-1,000 MWs
During the next four years the only available fuels are gas, diesel, and heavy fuel oil. The country is stuck. Starting in the 4th year coal can be available in sufficient volume to provide a secure baseline electricity supply with gas used partly for base load and partly for peaking. Coal is probably cheaper than gas even after allowing for the environmental costs. After ten years new sources - nuclear, hydro, and renewable will be needed in large amounts.
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